TIP方法在大华北地区预报效能的研究

详细信息

A STUDY OF THE PREDICTION EFFFCTIVENESS OF TIP METHOD IN LARGE NORTH CHINA AREA

摘要: 用改进的M₈算法研究了1979年以来大华北地区存在的TIP,即强震发生概率增长时间。结果表明8次中强震有7次发生在被判定为概率增长时间内,TIP警戒占研究总时空域的40.7%,R评分为0.468。获得了较好的中强震中期预测内符效果,表明该方法可作为大华北地区中强震中期预测的手段之一。
- M₈算法 /
- 主震 /
- 余震 /
- 地震流函数
Abstract: This paper studies the TIP, that is the probability increase time of the strong earthquakes occerrence, existing in North China area since 1979 by modified M₈ algorithm.The result shows that 7 of the8 moderately strong earthquakes occurred in Probability increase time, the TJP warnings.makes up 40.7% of the studied total time-space domain, the evaluated point of R is.0T468, objaining a relativelygood mid-term prediction effect of moderately strong earthquakes, which indicates that this metbod canbe used as one of mid-term prediction means of moderately strong earthquakes., in lage North Chinaarea.
- M₈ algorithm /
- main shock. after shock /
- earthquake flow function

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