RESEARCH ON PREDICTION OF SEISMIC RISK IN NORTHERN PART OF HEBEI PROVINCE BEFORE 2005

From information theory and Bayesian model, the estimation for the seismic risk in northern part of hebei Province before 2005 has been shown based on the seismo structure as the long term seismic precursor and the recent seismic precursors in the condition of the estimation on the seismic tendency in the coming decade years. The special distribution of the probability of the occurrence of the strong earthquake and the intensities have been given also.