AN EXAMPLE OF FALSE ALARM OF EARTHQUAKE BY USE OF THE PRECURSOR ON SPOUTING-TYPE UNDERGROUND WATER ABNORMALY, AND A POSSIBLE FOUNDATION TO DISTINGUISH THE TRUE FROM THE FALSE PRECURSOR

In July 1984, the People's Govermemt of Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region issued a short-term earthquake prediction to society based on the propose of the Autonomous Region Seismological Bureau.The prediction was issued after the emerge of spouting-type abnormaly of underground water in oil-water wells, based on that many precursor methods had revealed mid-term abnormalies at the same time.As a result, it produced one false alarm of earthouake.#br#After the event, we researched the main foundation of the prediction——the spouting-type abnormaly of underground water in oil water well.It was pointed out that the variable curve of recovered level of the spouting-type abnomaly with time is distinct from that of previous earthquakes and violates the precursor theory of spoutingtype abnormaly proposed by the authors.It was presented that the single linear law of recovered level with time introduced by the procursor theory is possibly a foundation to distinguish the true precursor abnormaly from the false.#br#This non-earthquake spouting-type abnormaly may connect with the injected liquid of excessive pressure of other two disused wells (the two disused wells and the spouting wells are about 2 km apart).Its mechamism is similar to that of induced eartoquakes by water injection.The explanation for the recovered level curve of such non-earthouake spouting abnormaly showed that there is a fault at a distance from the spouting well.